Proper use of satellites to pinpoint bin Laden
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Proper use of satellites to pinpoint bin Laden
Spotted last eight months, according to the official version, the founder of al-Qaeda was, it seems, surrounded by spy satellites.
It is still early to know the underbelly of the operation that led to the execution of Osama bin Laden. Reports that his home in Abbottabad was spotted in August 2010 does not allow to query the time – eight months at a minimum – which separated the discovery of the raid on the compound of U.S. Navy commandos. From conversations with intelligence professionals, we tried to understand what current military computer technologies allow for surveillance of a building, people who live and those which – necessarily – go in and out.
For our stakeholders is evident: from human sources that could identify the house where lived an important character linked to al-Qaeda, all the technical means were used to place him under surveillance. “All means” when we think the U.S. is a lot! These are the first military observation satellites, with pictures showing details of a few inches in the best case. More generally about twenty centimeters. They go once a day over a period, they can shoot for two minutes. It is unclear how much equipment available to the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), which manages the equipment, but their abilities are amazing today: for example, infrared imagery which they can identify with their heat human bodies in a house. Helpful to know how many people live there …
Drones and reconnaissance aircraft
Second element: the commercial satellite imaging. Their production is acquired by the massive U.S. trade agency, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency. The accuracy of these commercial images is lower than that of military production, but they increase the number of overflights. In September 2010, the NGA has awarded two contracts of ten years to two commercial companies, GeoEye and Digital Globe, for $ 7.3 billion (4.9 billion euros)! Objective: To have more pictures.
Third source: the photographic reconnaissance aircraft, especially the drones. You can bet that since August 2010, units of the CIA and U.S. military held deflected goals constantly on the home of bin Laden. Day and night …
Machines back in time
Then the analysts have peeled. The images of satellites, drones, aircraft also may have been passed to roping specialized software. Their abilities are astounding. Between a car she at Ben Laden? His route is rising … “If it was the end point was the starting point,” says a man of intelligence. It is possible to know where it comes from. And when it comes out of the residence, it will be followed relentlessly.
Since satellites are also an incredible journey back in time. An example? Abbottabad has been the victim of an earthquake in 2005. This city was then examined from every angle. Since Monday morning the pictures came out of some French military PC. Everything has jumped eyes of analysts: the first sod at Ben Laden, the construction of the building floor by floor, over the months … When the Americans knew where home was, they no longer had to drag its coordinates in the computer memory, become a machine to travel back in time. The plans have emerged. The CIA has built at least an identical building for training commandos.
Computer aid needed
But that’s not all: this house which you do not leave garbage, that does not use the phone, offer clues: “Everyone has a routine, just to find it. Do not leave their garbage, is a non-routine revealing, says an expert in image interpretation. There is something, when there is nothing. A good photo-interpreter goes beyond the geometry of an image. He plays with it like a virtuoso musician transposes a partition. If he knows that a man lives in a house and it has not come out once in four months, he can say that there will be a good chance that if one wants to catch him, he is now … ”
Computer aids are indispensable. They can help analyze buildings, analyzing the movement of people and crowds … (Entering, exiting, which remains around the building or traveling, outdoor rounds are conducted? Etc..) Verify the movement of vehicles, analyze the traffic in the area … possibly expand the scope of observation … . For this specialist information technology applied to intelligence, “the image analysis software were very useful, but when it becomes stocky man returned to power. A fuzzy logic algorithm is very difficult to program. I am absolutely certain that in this case, Americans have been crazy human resources, the budget of this file has known no limits! ”
One explanation of the eight months between the first sighting of the house of Abbottabad (assuming that that date is good) and his attack lies in this comprehensive analysis of the behavior of its hosts, their network, their mode life. Two days after this intervention, it is far too early to know the Prolegomena …